The Future Is Coming: Are We Ready? | J&J Fireside – Episode 6

This episode of J&J Fireside | Episode 6 reflects on the growing tension between long-term planning and a world that changes faster than any plan can accommodate.

Jyoti Rahman, fiscal economist, stranded at Bangkok airport after the Middle East conflict disrupted his travel route, and Md. Rubaiyath Sarwar, Managing Director of Innovision Consulting, speaking from Dhaka amid fuel shortages and oil price shocks, turn a moment of acute disruption into a broader conversation about how governments and businesses should think about the future. The conversation, originally featured on Counterpoint, a weekly newspaper and online platform offering in-depth analysis of Bangladesh and global issues, draws on economics, policy experience, and a surprising detour through Game of Thrones.

What Does Long-Term Even Mean Anymore?

In a world of cascading shocks, the conventional boundaries between short and long term have blurred. The hosts examine why this matters:

• Five year plans feel uncertain, ten year visions feel speculative
• Practitioners have now lived through multiple "once in a generation" crises within a single career
• Big structural challenges like demographic change, climate pressure, and technological disruption do not disappear simply because the present is chaotic
• Policymakers struggle to justify long-term thinking when short-term fires demand constant attention

The Volatility Paradox

One of the episode's most counterintuitive arguments is that the world may not actually be as volatile as it feels:

• GDP variance data shows macroeconomic fluctuations have narrowed in many countries over recent decades
• The real concern may be the opposite: too much stability, where creative destruction has slowed and incumbent businesses have become entrenched
• The gap between how volatile things feel and what data actually shows is itself a challenge for planners and policymakers

The Game of Thrones Problem

The episode's most vivid framing draws on an unexpected source. Long-term challenges are like the Night King: existential, slow-moving, and easy to ignore when everyone is consumed by immediate political battles. The hosts point to the UK as a cautionary example:

• High-quality institutions, think tanks, and civil society had identified fiscal, demographic, and social challenges years in advance
• And yet sustained political dysfunction meant none of it was addressed
• Simply knowing a long-term problem exists is not enough

From Plans to Contingencies

The core recommendation is a fundamental shift in how planning is approached. Rather than building a plan and attaching a risk section at the end, scenario and risk analysis should sit at the heart of any strategy from the outset:

• Map multiple probability-weighted scenarios rather than a single projected pathway
• Build contingency responses into the plan itself rather than treating them as afterthoughts
• Treat long-term plans as living strategic documents rather than static blueprints
• Prioritise agility and adaptability over the precision of any fixed roadmap

The analogy offered is a military one: commanders plan for everything that can go wrong precisely so they can keep moving toward their objective regardless of what happens on the ground.

Watch J&J Fireside: The J&J Fireside | Episode 06| The Future Is Coming: Are we Ready?

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