Innovision Survey Shows High Voter Turnout Intent and Shifting Political Preferences Ahead of February Election

With the February 2026 national election approaching, voter interest remains high while political preferences continue to evolve, accordingto the People’s Election Pulse Survey (PEPS), Round 3, released byInnovision Consulting on 30 January 2026 in Dhaka.

The findings were presented at a press conference by Md.Rubaiyath Sarwar, Managing Director of Innovision Consulting and Lead of the Survey. PEPS is a panel-based national opinion survey that tracks changes inpublic perception and voting intention over time.

Key Highlights from PEPS Round 3

• Voter participation
  
  • 93.3% of respondents said they are likely to vote in February
  • 78.5% of those who earlier said they would not vote now intend to vote
  • Voting intention remains slightly lower among Gen Z, but high overall
• Confidence in election administration
  
  • 72.3% believe the government will be able to conduct a fair election
  • 74.4% expressed confidence in impartial policing and local administration
• Polling day safety
  
  • 82% feel confident they will be able to vote safely, up from 78% in Round 2
• Referendum awareness
  
  • Nearly 60% support a “Yes” vote
  • 22% said they are not aware of the referendum
• Likely winners at constituency level
  
  • 52.9% believe a BNP candidate would win in their area
  • 23.8% said they cannot yet say
• Expected Prime Minister
  
  • 47.6% expect Tarique Rahman to become Prime Minister
  • 22.5% named Shafiqur Rahman
  • 22.2% remain undecided
• Voting decision status
  
  • 74.2% have decided which party they will vote for
  • A higher share of women (69.7%) remain undecided compared to men
• Shifts in voter preference
  
  • BNP is holding its base and gaining support from undecided and former Awami League voters
  • Jamaat’s vote base shows higher volatility, with some voters choosing not to disclose preferences

About the Survey

• Conducted: 16–27 January 2026
• Sample size: 5,147 respondents nationwide
• Method: Panel survey via phone interviews (CATI)
• Coverage: All eight divisions, urban and rural areas

The discussion session featured Dr. Asif M. Shahan (University of Dhaka), Fahim Mashroor (Voice for Reform), Shafiqul Rahman(BRAIN), Jyoti Rahman (BRAIN), and Tasmiah Rahman (Innovision Consulting).

PEPS Round 3 was funded, designed, and administered by Innovision Consulting, with outreach and technical assistance support from BRAIN and Voice for Reform, who also co-funded this round.

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Presentation materials from PEPS Round 3 are available here:

Presentation in English – Round 3: Click Here

Presentation in Bangla – Round 3: Click Here

Press Release in English – Round 3: Click Here

Press Release in Bangla – Round 3: Click Here

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Media Coverage of PEPS Round 3:  The Daily Inqilab | Jamuna Television News link 1, News link 2 | Prothom Alo News link 1, News link 2 | bdnews24.com News link 1, News link 2, News link 3, News line 4 | Protidiner Bangladesh

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